Overall for the month of November, the equity market had a very solid return. NASDAQ had the best return at 3.58% over the the month, the DJI had just shy of a 3.5% return (but included an all-time high of 16166.94), and the S&P lagged at 2.8%. As we tail off to the end of the year, we are still seeing very good gains month over month. Year to date S&P has seen returns of 26.62% where the midcaps have seen a stellar return of 34.56%. Currently we re predicting a year end close of 1,820-1,825 for the S&P representing a 0.82-1.1% return through December.
Institutional investors are being very timid around what the Fed is going to do moving forward. There is talk of taper in the month of December, but we feel that the current economic conditions to not meet the point at which the Fed will start to taper. A lot of people seem to think that as the economy improves the Fed will completely remove their stimulus of bond buying. We are still a long way from where the economy will need to be, so even if we see improvemnt, they will simply pull back on the total amount of monthly bond buying. We feel as that this pullback will not be a major factor in the total return over december or the following months.
Through the month of November, the leading sector was Healthcare with a return of 3.94%. The lagging sector was Utilities with a return of -1.62%.
Gainers and Losers
MSFT – Microsoft Corporation (+7.7%) with issuing a $0.28 dividend, ex 11/19, due for payment 12/12. This stock is still being eyed by many investors, due to the declining PC market. However this company has and is taking steps to strongly improve its mobile development.
JCP – J.C. Penny Company Inc (35.87%) JCP has been extremely volatile over the year. Even though this stock was up, it still could be seen as speculation due to concerns over it’s future.
PCLN – Priceline.com Inc (13.14%) Priceline came dangerously close to closing at 1200, but came up shy, still managed to reach an all-time high of 1192.33.
TSLA – Tesla Motors Inc (-20.42%) Tesla has been quite a volatile stock as of late. People have been struggling with valuation of this company and if it is worth the current price that people are paying for it.
FTNT – Fortinet Inc (-15.05%) due to an announcement of a CFO transition, after a short period of time in office.
GLD – SPDR Gold ETF (-5.51%) When it comes to commodities gold has been seriously lagging. Who knows when we will see a bottom to this commodity.